The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States has thrown the US and the World into a dangerous era. So, what lies ahead?
I examine here a benign and a catastrophic scenario, not because I believe that they may occur exactly that way, but to allow us to assess the direction the world is taking during his first year in office.
In the benign scenario, the victory of Trump will mean a victory of the anti-politically correct against the politically correct ideology. These two extreme stances in values and policies, would be refuted by a moderate electorate tired of social experimentalism at the end of his mandate(s).
In the catastrophic scenario, Trump will follow his neo-Nazi ideals based on racial (white) supremacy, state capitalism and imperialist arms race, to be paid through predatory conquests, that will lead to a war clash with other aspiring imperialists and terrorists. This, sooner or later, will end in a nuclear war destroying most or all humankind.
So, what forces will drive us in each direction?
For the benign scenario, we need most of following developments:
1) That the madness of crowds who drove Trump into power, subsides;
2) that Trump, himself, moderates his team and policies and be content with a role as the star of a national virtual reality show;
3) that the few moderate republicans remaining are not afraid to join the democrats in defeating any of his attempts to change the constitutional order and balance of power between institutions in the USA;
4) that the democrats avoid becoming taken over by the PC defeated crowd of Sanders left-wingers;
5) that the Trump mania does not spread to Europe with a victory of Marie Le Pen in France and the victory of similar candidates in Germany and the UK;
6) that the European Union does not disintegrate and finds its own Churchill to lead the democratic values in the World;
7) that Putin does not seize the opportunity to retake the Baltics, Ukraine and other former satellites of Russia;
8) that China does not be tempted to seize dominance in Asia and settle its historical grievance with Japan; and, last but not least,
9) that his economic ignorance does not cause havoc in free international trade and financial systems causing a major world recession.
The catastrophic scenario, implies that most of these developments will take place:
1) he fulfils his promise to expel millions of emigrants and build a wall between Mexico, causing havoc in Mexico and other Latin American countries;
2) he promotes the rise of state and crony capitalism through his plans to increase public spending in armaments and infrastructure while making huge tax cuts for the rich, thus creating an imploding public deficit and a declining dollar;
3) he turns his back on his European Allies, weakening (or destroying) NATO, and entering in a kind of Hitler-Stalin deal to give Putin territory in the Ukraine, the Baltics and Poland;
4) he does not enter into a similar deal with the Chinese to give them leeway in the Pacific in exchange for a more or less disguised form of default in America debt;
5) he transforms the American Administration in a Putin-style security apparatus or on a Hitler-style SS militia based on his core fanatic supporters;
6) he implements a Chinese/Russian type of control over social media and the Internet;
7) he tries to curb the rising US external debt and deficit through international debt restructuring/default (after all, his business experience is in bankruptcy deals), protectionism and competitive devaluations;
8) he initially robs migrants (the way Hitler robbed the Jews) and expels them, before bringing them later on into new forms of labour slavery;
9) he promotes the political breakup of the European Union and its invasion by Eastern and African migrants (mostly Muslim) to create a three-power geo-political world;
10) the remaining three totalitarian powers play a game of mouse and cat until one of them decides to try to eliminate the other(s) through a nuclear holocaust. Given his unstable nature, it could be Trump himself to be the first to push the button.
As I said at the beginning, it is unlikely that the world will move immediately into one of these routes. There will be a lot of zig-zagging.
Let’s pray that the USA will move away from the catastrophic route and into the benign direction.
But, for that, it is fundamental that all those who wish peace and progress, do not compromise, lower their arms or support the extremists.
More than ever, the world survival lies on reason prevailing over dogma and fanaticism!